June Jobs Presents Hidden Problems
The stock markets continued their rally from last week fueled largely by
the June jobs report. Sheer lunacy. Any silver lining coming from Washington has
a cloud attached but the markets ignore it.
The jobs report was the best, 195,000 jobs gained in
June, we have had for quite some time. That is the silver lining. The cloud was
not publicized.
The United States, all 318 million citizens and countless illegals, numbers
an employment-eligible population of 245 million according to Washington. That
number is skewed immediately because the government does not count students
(many of whom hold jobs) nor those over 65 (more and more of whom are not
retiring) as 'employment-eligible' now. Therefore the 245 million is
demonstrably understated and might be pushing the 275 million mark.
Give Washington the benefit of the doubt, leave the number at 245 million.
Of the 245 million accounted for, only 144 million have jobs (53%). Per the
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor, of the 144 million
holding jobs, 43 million are classified as temporary (15 million) or part-time
(28 million) workers.
Here's the distinction--those workers in the temporary or part-time
category are not counted towards meeting 'benefits status'. Applying that
standard, the percentage of Americans 'working' falls to 41.2% of the employment
eligible.
Washington just announced one day per week furloughs to the Department of
Defense civilian workforce, trimming 20% of the pay from these people because of
sequester mandates. To offset sequester's effects, the cuts should have been
more severe but then those people would no longer have the 30 hours per week of
work necessary to stay out of the 'part-time' category.
The real down side would be those companies, essentially on the government
payroll who employ those people, would no longer have to offer a benefits
package commensurate with government standards for benefits supplied to
full-time employees.
Plus the properly classified workers would probably qualify for food stamps
and assisted housing benefits, further tapping federal resources.
But the markets soared mainly because nobody looked behind the figures but
just ran with the headline caption the economy was recovering.
If disposable pay continues to decline where will the consumer get the
funds to continue spending habits? Where will the companies represented on those
stock boards be able to continue revenue generation if the consumer decides
anything other than food, shelter and energy is a luxury?
It has been known for a long time that the markets have divorced their
trade prices from any real value. This rise is the latest evidence that house of
cards has no basis.
Governments, through central bankers around the world, are propping up
their markets to maintain the illusion the currency of the realm still has value
and calm the fears of the masses. It has the added benefit of allowing
governments to continue the myth they have some control over economic
matters.
The storm cloud being created may have a silver lining yet, but the
forecast isn't merely for rain, it promises to drop boulder-sized hail on
economic wealth very soon.
"I have sworn on the altar of God eternal hostility
to every form of tyranny over the mind of man."--Thomas
Jefferson
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