Sometimes good comments are worth an entire article. This author is a big believer in the fostering of good, intelligent dialogues with commenters on these various alternative media sites. We all have the ability (with comments) to function in the manner of unofficial reporters. The nation is huge; however, the distance is nominal and the situations that arise in the nation as a whole can be chronicled and reported by we, the average citizens. The comments and interactions are a means to that end.
In this light, I wish to ask you, the Readership to report on this important topic in order to present others with the situations taking place in their locales. The topic referred to being declining inventories and a lack of purchases to meet with customer (I despise the word “consumers”) needs in terms of foodstuffs and nondurable goods.
I came across two excellent comments upon Steve Quayle’s website that bear reading, as these are two people with experience in retail marketing, inventory, ordering, and purchases. Take a look at these:
#1 (From DJ, January 24, 2016)
“Steve-#2 (From a Commenter following up #1 who didn’t provide a name, January 26, 2016)
[Regarding the] alerts about the current state of the RR industry. This is in line with what I’ve been noticing as I visited our local/regional grocery store, Walmart, and Target this week in WI. I worked in big box retail for 20 years specializing in Inventory Management. These stores are all using computerized inventory management systems that monitor and automatically replenish inventory when levels/shelf stock get low. This prevents “out of stocks” and lost sales. These companies rely on the ability to replenish inventory quickly from regional warehouses.
As I shopped this week and looked at inventory levels I was shocked. There were numerous (above and beyond acceptable levels) out of stocks across category lines at all three retailers. And even where inventory was on the shelf, the overall levels were noticeably reduced. Based on my experience, working for two of these three organizations in store management, they have drastically/intentionally reduced their inventory levels. This is either due to financial stresses/poor sales effecting their ability to acquire new inventory, or it could be the result of what was mentioned earlier regarding the transporting of goods to these regional warehouses. Either way this doesn’t bode well for the what’s to come. Stock up now while you can!”
“I’d like to tailgate on the SQ Alert “based on my experience…” regarding stock levels in big box stores. This weekend we were in two such stores, each in fairly isolated communities which are easily the communities’ best source for acquiring grocery items in quantity.
I myself worked in retail (meat) for thirty years so I know exactly what a well-stocked store looks like, understand the key categories and category drivers, and how shelves are stocked and displays are built to drive sales and profits. I also understand supply chain and distribution methodologies quite well.
Each of the stores we were in were woefully under-stocked. This time of year-the few weeks following the holidays-is usually big business in groceries and low stock levels suggest either poor ordering at the store level, poor purchasing at the distribution level or a purposeful desire to be under-stocked.
Anyone familiar with the retail grocery industry is also familiar with how highly touted “the big box store’s” infrastructure is. They know exactly when demand is high and for what items and in what quantities. It is very unlikely that both stores somehow got “surprised” by unusually high demand. It is reasonable then to imagine that low stock levels in rural areas with few options is a purposed endeavor to assure that both the budget conscious and the folks in more remote areas are not fully able to load up their pantries.
Simply put I believe the major retailer in question is doing their part to limit the ability of rural America to be sufficiently prepared. Nevertheless, we are wise to do our best to keep ahead of the curve. God bless your efforts, Steve.”
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/29/2016 - 20:17
Two weeks ago we, in collaboration with several readers, requested an official response from the Fed through a Freedom Of Information Act submission. Surely if the Fed would go so far as to call us liars, it would have no problem either responding or providing the required information. This is what we got back.
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The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates
we are out of an item that is in our flyers, we can write a rain check for
the customer to purchase within the month. There have been a few times
lately, when we have an item on our flyers, the distributor is totally out
of the item and we can't write rain checks as they don't know if we will be
able to get that item again. One time last week the actual company (not
just the distributor) had no more of this item in stock. So there are
shortages up here in Canada too
As Goldman's Naohiko Baba previously explained, NIRP in Japan will not actually boost the economy: "we do have concerns about the policy transmission channel. Policy Board Member Koji Ishida, who voted against the new measures, said that “a further decline in JGB yields would not have significantly positive effects on economy activity.” We concur with this sentiment, particularly for capex. The key determinants of capex in Japan are the expected growth rate and uncertainty about the future as seen by corporate management according to our analysis, while the impact of real long-term rates has weakened markedly in recent years."
What the BOJ's NIRP will do, is result in a one-time spike in risk assets, something global stock and bond markets have already experienced, and a brief decline in the Yen, one which traders can't wait to fade as Citi FX's Brent Donnelly explained yesterday.
NIRP will also have at most two other "positive" consequences, which according to Deutsche Bank include 1) reinforcing financial institutions’ decisions to grant new loans and invest in securities (if only in theory bnecause as explained further below in practice this may very well backfire); and 2) widening interest rate differentials to weaken JPY exchange rates, which in turn support companies’ JPY-based sales and profit, for whom a half of consolidated sales are from overseas.
That covers the positive. The NIRP negatives are far more troubling. The first one we already noted yesterday, when Goldman speculated that launching NIRP could mean that further QE is all tapped out:
Today, Deutsche Bank's Japan analyst Mikihiro Matsuoka jumps on the bandwagon and adds that "we are worried about a possible opening of a Pandora’s Box by explicitly removing the lower bound of nominal interest rates."... we believe the BOJ thinks that JGB purchases will have reached their technical limit in quantitative terms eventually, and it is highly likely it was a last-ditch measure to somehow maintain the current pace of purchases for some time. If not, we would have expected the BOJ not to introduce a negative interest rate this time either and to have opted instead to further increase JGB purchases.
Here, according to Deutsche, are the most severe consequences of Japan opening the NIRP Pandora's box :
- as the monetary base target of expanding by JPY80trn a year continues, the tax on financial institutions expands rapidly also, even if an upper bound on excess reserves that are subject to the negative rate is set. The net interest margin of Japanese commercial banks is lower than in other countries.
- it is unlikely to deliver a combination of the reduction in excess reserves and a rise in lending on private financial institutions’ balance sheets: financial institutions cannot avoid this tax. If they intend to shift reserves to loans and holding securities in order to avoid the tax from the negative interest rate, excess reserves (a part of the monetary base) should fall, which the BoJ would not accept. As long as the target for monetary base expansion is maintained, the mostly likely outcome would be increases in both excess reserves and bank loans (or the holding of securities). On the other hand, in order for the monetary base to continue to expand, there have to exist sellers of government securities to the BoJ. A downward shift of the yield curve could cause financial institutions to refrain from selling government securities with higher associated capital gains to the BoJ.
- the negative interest rate is, in effect, a tax on financial assets, and not the BoJ’s intention. This could lead to an opposite outcome to that of the initial intention, whereby the country encourages companies and households to engage in capital outflow.
That, and the capital outflow noted above. The good news is that Japan has a lot of physical banknotes to allow the NIRP bank run to continue for quite a while before collapsing the financial system.if the negative interest rate continues for longer or goes deeper, commercial banks may have to set negative interest rates on deposits, which would expand not only the tax on commercial banks, but also on depositors (households and companies). This could lead to a ‘silent bank run’ via a shift of deposits to cash (banknotes), which in turn damages the sound banking system by enlarging the leakage of funds from the credit creation mechanism in the banking system.
In short, to grasp the worst possible consequence of Japan's panicked response to a rising Yen and plunging Nikkei look no further than China's unprecedented capital control attempts to stem the monetary outflow. Could it be that in its eagerness to devalue the Yen, the BOJ - like the PBOC - will be fighting tooth and nail in a few months to prop it up?
And if that wasn't cheerful enough, here is DB's conclusion which confirms that just a month after the Fed made a policy mistake, it is Japan's turn to follow in Yellen's shoes:
By then, however, a Davos peer-pressured Kuroda will be long gone, and the doomed attempt to keep the system together will be someone else's problem. For now, all that matters is that stocks bounced... if only for a ahort time.We wonder whether removing the last breakwater of the lower bound at a zero interest rate could end up being an expensive choice in the long run. The factor which pushed the BoJ down this path is probably its view that causality runs from economic activity to wages and then to prices, which we do not agree with. Our view is that causality runs from economic activity to prices and then to wages, and we do not share the argument that inflation does not rise because wages have not risen.
We believe the additional room that the BoJ has to lower rates on bank reserves is smaller than in other countries that have already introduced a negative interest rate, because of the lower net interest margin of commercial banks in Japan. However, if the BoJ pursues this path, we could reach the point of the trade-off of possibly damaging the soundness of the banking system.
Baltic Dry Index falls to 317, down 8 points.NOTE THE DROP IN THIS INDEX AND THE REPORTS, NOW COMING IN IN EMPTY STORE SHELVES FROM ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY Note read my account at Home Depot A meeting I was in----->>>> http://redflagwarningstoamerica.blogspot.com/2016/01/home-depot-shortages-coming-eye-witness.html Home Depot Shortages coming eye witness account
over 9,000 hits now on this posting
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/2497639/feds-tell-texas-ranchers-the-government-owns-their-land-despite-owners-having-deeds-paying-property-taxes-on-the-land/#PDu2CtQJ5M5Y7AF7.99
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FBI Releases Video of LaVoy Finicum Shooting Infowars - The FBI has released to the public today a video recorded on Tuesday, January 26, 2016 of the FBI and OSP law enforcement action to bring into custody the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge occupiers.... At 26 minutes and 20 seconds the video shows Finicum shot to death. Although the footage was taken from the air, it plainly show Finicum with his hands up. He then appears to reach inside his jacket and is shot by two OSP officers.
** Related: Complete, Unedited Video of Joint FBI and OSP Operation 01/26/2016 (Thanks to Sam Bushman and Liberty Roundtable for providing)
---Oregon occupation simmers
Reuters - A handful of armed protesters remained holed up in a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon on Thursday, surrounded by police and federal agents, despite impassioned pleas from their jailed leader for them to stand down after the death of an activist. One of the holdouts at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, David Fry, said in a YouTube message on Thursday that their number had dwindled to four following the departure of another occupier on Wednesday night. Fry said that the small group had been in contact with the FBI, who had pledged not to arrest anyone not subject to a federal warrant. "(But) it turns out that if you do leave they end up charging you later, they're pressing charges on everybody who was here, it sounds like," he said. "That's like 5 years of prison sentence, its a felony. So of course if you get a felony you can't vote any more and they take your guns away."
Weekly News Wrap-Up 1.29.16 Greg Hunter
EARTH SHATTERING OREGON STANDOFF UPDATE PART 2
Breaking News - Pacific Patriots Network
OFFICIAL CALL TO ACTION
PPN condemns the violent action taken by the Harney County Sheriff's Department along with the FBI in the shooting death of Mr. Lavoy Finicum. PPN condemns the violent action taken by the Harney County Sheriff's Department along with the FBI in the execution of arrests associated with the people at the Malhuer National Wildlife Refuge occupation. PPN condemns the DISHONEST tactics used to arrest Jason Patrick on January 28th. Mr. Patrick's safety, well being and emotional state were compromised when the FBI lied not only to Mr. Patrick but to PPN representatives trying to assist with the PEACEFUL removal of people at the MNWR. The FBI stated to Mr. Patrick and the PPN that he was “free to go.” Mr. Patrick walked 7 miles in sub freezing temperatures only to be arrested at the checkpoint north of the Narrows. PPN condemns the false statements given to the public by the FBI, Harney County Sheriff's Department and the Harney County officials.
IN RESPONSE TO THESE EVENTS, PACIFIC PATRIOTS NETWORK
IS ISSUING A
CALL TO ACTIONCalling on any and all Americans to come to Burns, Oregon to come to the aid of the American people standing against these violent, malicious and deceitful tactics. Come stand together with other Americans, and express our Constitutional right to PEACEFULLY assemble and air our grievances.
This operation will demand the following:
- Immediate detention by Oregon State Police of the FBI special agent in charge along with all agents and LEO involved in the shooting death of Lavoy Finicum. A first hand eyewitness account presents reasonable cause for arrest while the investigation takes place.
- Immediate removal of all militarized FBI personnel and equipment from Harney County. All State and County Law Enforcement officers are not included and requested to stay and assist in the process to keep the peace.
- Immediate resignation of Judge Steve Grasty, Sheriff David Ward, County commissioner Pete Runnels, and County commissioner Dan Nichols.
In order to successfully accomplish our mission, we will need any and all Americans to PEACEFULLY assemble within Burns, Oregon immediately. The success of this mission depends fully on the number of people that will come to PEACEFULLY stand and demand the items above be initiated.
A letter of intent will be legally served on the FBI special agent in charge at the time of Lavoy Finicum's death, Judge Steven Grasty, Sheriff David Ward, Dan Nichols and Pete Runnels by January 29th, 2016. We will request to escort the FBI presence out of Harney County, Oregon and once complete, the attention will return to the resignation of the County elected officials.
PPN is dedicated to a PEACEFUL operation. If you have any ill intent, please do not come. We do not need you. Please come prepared with civilian attire and adhere to the policy of no long guns within the community.
Please come self sufficient and able to care for yourself for the time you plan to stay. Donations arrive daily but they are not sustainable for a large or lengthy contingency.
We ask that you email us at firstname.lastname@example.org if and when you are planning to come and stand in Burns, Oregon
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Negative Interest Rates Show Desperation of Central Banks
Japan Just Lit the Fuse on a $9 Trillion Debt Bomb
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2016 - 10:28
"... if the negative interest rate continues for longer or goes deeper, commercial banks may have to set negative interest rates on deposits, which would expand not only the tax on commercial banks, but also on depositors (households and companies). This could lead to a ‘silent bank run’ via a shift of deposits to cash (banknotes), which in turn damages the sound banking system by enlarging the leakage of funds from the credit creation mechanism in the banking system."
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Nationwide Retail Collapse Inventory Reduction Cause Shortages - The issues we are seeing in shipping and the railroad industry are already causing a lot of problems in the retail sector. I am hearing a lot of things about major shortages in certain areas to start and then cascading into shortages all across the board. Please leave a comment about what is happening in your area where you live or if you work in shipping or high positions in retail. Keep a close eye out for shortages in particular areas. I think it's getting much close to a power down situation where there will be a lot less.
Stay At The Ready...
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Rolling Protest Burns Oregon - Saturday - 1-30-16
Outlaws Chapel Almost There